History has this funny habit of repeating itself. Often to the embarrassment of those who question it the most vociferously.
For six long years now, Narendra Modi has been repeatedly pointing out the failures of the Nehru dynasty. His main target has always been Jawaharlal Nehru, our first prime minister. It may be apt, therefore, to start this discussion with Nehru. For Nehru was the only real choice the Mahatma had among all those vying to lead India into the future. He had a clear vision and a road map to make a world-class nation out of what was then an emasculated British colony.
Nehru had his failings of course. Every important task brings along its own inchoate problems and Nehru failed to address some of them. He was a textbook prime minister and followed the template of the great world leaders of his time. He knew where he wanted to take India, and this itself was an achievement given the way most world leaders run their countries today. You need to judge him in the context of his times and the ideas that dominated then. He created a special role for India through the Non-Aligned Movement, together with Nasser, Tito, Nkrumah and Sukarno, all of them great leaders who wanted to stay free from the influence of the big powers jockeying for world leadership.
But Nehru’s biggest mistake was China. It was an easy mistake to make if you consider Mao’s mystique at the time. He was a larger than life hero to the emerging world– and Nehru succumbed to his charm, dreaming of a resurgent Asia built on Indo-Chinese friendship. He even based his foreign policy on the Panchsheel—the five principles of peaceful co-existence he believed India and China shared. The US-Pak romance also made this imperative. It was only much later, in 1954, that India discovered, almost by accident, that China was claiming large chunks of its territory as its own.
Nehru did not want to lose face. He tried to resolve the problem quietly– and diplomatically. And the Chinese, as expansionist then as they are today, took advantage of that. The 1962 war broke Nehru. 18 months later, he died.
Curiously, Narendra Modi—his sharpest critic– faces an identical problem today. He also dreamt of a resurgent Asia built on Indo-Chinese friendship. He also envisioned a foreign policy based on friendship with China. But after 18 meetings with Xi, Modi finally realised that China cannot be romanced. It will never give an inch without demanding a huge price. Like Nehru reached out to John F Kennedy during his conflict with China, Modi has tried to bring Donald Trump into the equation, knowing US-China relations are currently strained.
Unlike Nehru, Modi has also retaliated. The counter strikes on the LAC have demonstrated that India 2020 is not India 1962. Modi has also taken economic measures. By banning Tik Tok and 117 other apps on grounds of national security, India has shaved off a few billion dollars in the valuation of some top Chinese companies. Trump has played along. He cornered Tik Tok to show his support. (He expects American Indians to reciprocate by voting for him in the coming elections.) But the truth is Trump was already squeezing Chinese companies like Huawei for his own ends.
The idea is to send a clear message to China not to over-reach itself at a time when global experts are saying that Trump’s hubris and unpredictability have ensured that China will soon overtake the US as a global super power. They are probably right because despite Trump’s best efforts to distress Huawei, it has just had a spectacular year. Trump is also unpredictable. Even as he plays ball with Modi, he gives us Indians a tougher visa regime than we have ever had. He also tries to dictate to us what defence equipment we ought to buy.
Will the Chinese app ban make us atmanirbhar? Unlikely. Economies are not judged by their free apps. (Even though Akshay Kumar wants to replace PUBG with FAUJG.) What if China bans Indian steel? India’s steel exports more than doubled between April and July amidst the pandemic, to hit their highest level in six years, boosted by an unprecedented surge in Chinese buying.
Our annual exports to China are $16 billion. China ranks third among nations we export to. While we import goods worth $70 billion from China, which is barely 2 per cent of their exports. Clearly, we stand to lose if China retaliates. Out of India’s top 30 unicorns, 18 are funded by the Chinese. There’s over $3,500 million Chinese investment in India, growing some of our best start-ups.
But what’s more important is that China claims it’s ready with its Covid-19 vaccine. If you believe in conspiracy theories– I do– then the country that gave us the virus, wilfully or otherwise, will be the best equipped to fight it. They may even have had the cure ready before the pandemic. Can we afford to ignore that when thousands here are dying? And Wuhan, where it all began, has already discarded masks and begun partying.
Politics and business are separate issues. It’s best to leave them that way. Particularly when you are dealing with China.